A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the country and caused chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. Both composes two essays that seek objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must determine what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the opposing positions."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
